Words That Rhyme With Courage

Key Findings

California voters have now received their mail ballots, and the Nov 8 general election has entered its final stage. Amongst ascent prices and economic uncertainty—equally well equally deep partisan divisions over social and political issues—Californians are processing a slap-up deal of information to help them cull land constitutional officers and state legislators and to make policy decisions about state propositions. The 2022 midterm election too features a closely divided Congress, with the likelihood that a few races in California may decide which party controls the US House.

These are amidst the primal findings of a statewide survey on country and national issues conducted from October 14 to 23 by the Public Policy Institute of California:

Many Californians have negative perceptions of their personal finances and the US economy. Seventy-six pct rate the nation'southward economy equally "not and then good" or "poor." Thirty-ix pct say their finances are "worse off" today than a year ago. Xl-seven percent say that things in California are going in the correct direction, while 33 pct think things in the U.s. are going in the right direction; partisans differ in their overall outlook.→
Among likely voters, 55 pct would vote for Gavin Newsom and 36 per centum would vote for Brian Dahle if the governor's ballot were today. Partisans are deeply divided in their choices. Sixty percent are very or fairly closely following news almost the governor's race. Threescore-two percentage are satisfied with the candidate choices in the governor'south election.→
When likely voters are read the ballot title and labels, 34 percent would vote yeah on Proposition 26 (sports betting at tribal casinos), 26 percent would vote yes on Proposition 27 (online sports gambling), and 41 per centum would vote yes on Proffer 30 (reducing greenhouse gases). Virtually probable voters say they are not personally interested in sports betting, and 48 pct think it would exist a "bad thing" if it became legal in the state. Fewer than half of likely voters say the vote outcome of Propositions 26, 27, or xxx is very of import to them.→
Fifty-six pct of likely voters would support the Democratic candidate in their US House race if the ballot were today. Threescore-one percent say the effect of abortion rights is very important in their vote for Congress this year; Democrats are far more likely than Republicans or independents to concur this view. About half are "extremely" or "very" enthusiastic nearly voting for Congress this year; 54 percent of Republicans and Democrats, and 41 per centum of independents, are highly enthusiastic this yr.→
Xl-five percent of Californians and 40 percent of likely voters are satisfied with the way that democracy is working in the United states of america. Republicans are far less likely than Democrats and independents to hold this positive view. There is rare partisan consensus on one topic: majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and independents are pessimistic that Americans with different political views can still come together and work out their differences.→
Majorities of California adults and probable voters approve of Governor Gavin Newsom and President Joe Biden. About 4 in 10 or more California adults and likely voters approve of US Senator Dianne Feinstein and US Senator Alex Padilla. These blessing ratings vary across partisan groups. Approval of the state legislature is college than approval of the United states of america Congress.→

Overall Mood

With less than two weeks to go until what is set to be a highly consequential midterm election, California adults are divided on whether the state is more often than not headed in the right direction (47%) or wrong direction (48%); a bulk of likely voters (54%) think the state is headed in the wrong management (43% right direction). Similar shares held this view last calendar month (wrong management: 44% adults, 49% likely voters; correct direction: 50% adults, 48% likely voters). Today, there is a wide partisan dissever: vii in 10 Democrats are optimistic about the direction of the state, while 91 percent of Republicans and 59 percent of independents are pessimistic. Majorities of residents in the Central Valley and Orange/San Diego say the land is going in the incorrect direction, while a majority in the San Francisco Bay Area say correct direction; adults elsewhere are divided. Across demographic groups, Californians ages xviii to 34 (60%), Asian Americans (52%), college graduates (52%), renters (52%), and women (52%) are the only groups in which a majority are optimistic about California's direction.

figure - Half or fewer Californians have said the state is going in the right direction throughout 2022

Californians are much more pessimistic about the direction of the country than they are about the management of the state. Solid majorities of adults (62%) and likely voters (71%) say the U.s.a. is going in the wrong management, and majorities have held this view since September 2021. Ane in three or fewer adults (33%) and likely voters (25%) recall the country is going in the correct direction. Majorities beyond all demographic groups and partisan groups, besides as across regions, are pessimistic about the direction of the United states of america.

figure - The share of adults who say the United States is going in the right direction has been trending downward since mid-2021

The country of the economy and aggrandizement are probable to play a critical role in the upcoming ballot, and about 4 in ten adults (39%) and likely voters (43%) say they and their family are worse off financially than they were a yr ago. Like shares say they are financially in about the same spot (43% adults, 44% likely voters). The share who feel they are worse off has risen slightly amid likely voters since May, only is similar among adults (37% adults, 36% likely voters). Fewer than two in 10 Californians say they are better off than they were ane yr ago (17% adults, 13% likely voters). A wide partisan divide exists: virtually Democrats and independents say their fiscal state of affairs is almost the aforementioned as a year ago, while solid majorities of Republicans say they are worse off. Regionally, about half in the San Francisco Bay Expanse and Los Angeles say they are about the same, while half in the Central Valley say they are worse off; residents elsewhere are divided between being worse off and the same. Across demographic groups, pluralities say they are either financially most the same equally last yr or worse off, with the exception of African Americans (51% about the same, 33% worse off, 16% better off) and Asian Americans (51% about the same, 27% worse off, 20% better off). The shares proverb they are worse off pass up equally educational attainment increases.

With persistent aggrandizement and concerns about a possible recession in the future, an overwhelming majority of Californians believe the US economy is in non then good (43% adults, forty% likely voters) or poor (33% adults, 36% likely voters) shape. Near a quarter of adults (3% first-class, 20% skilful) and likely voters (ii% excellent, 23% good) feel positively about the national economy. Strong majorities across partisan groups experience negatively, simply Republicans and independents are much more probable than Democrats to say the economy is in poor shape. Solid majorities beyond the land'south major regions as well equally all demographic groups say the economy is in not so adept or poor shape. In a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll, 24 pct (three% excellent, 21% adept) of adults nationwide felt positively virtually the US economy, while 74 pct (36% not so good, 38% poor) expressed negative views.

Gubernatorial Ballot

Six in ten likely voters say they are following news virtually the 2022 governor'south race very (25%) or adequately (35%) closely—a share that has risen from one-half but a month agone (17% very, 33% fairly). This finding is somewhat like to October 2018, when 68 percent said this (28% very, 40% closely) a month before the previous gubernatorial election. Today, majorities across partisan, demographic, and regional groups say they are following news most the gubernatorial election either very or fairly closely. The shares saying they are following the news very closely is highest among residents in Republican districts (39%), Republicans (30%), whites (29%), and adults with incomes of $xl,000 to $79,999 (29%). Older likely voters (27%) are slightly more likely than younger likely voters (21%) to say they are following the news closely.

figure - Six in ten likely voters are following news about candidates for the 2022 governor's election at least fairly closely

Democratic incumbent Gavin Newsom is ahead of Republican Brian Dahle (55% to 36%) among likely voters, while few say they would not vote, would vote for neither, or don't know who they would vote for in the governor's race. The share supporting the reelection of the governor was similar a month ago (58% Newsom, 31% Dahle). Today, Newsom enjoys the support of most Democrats (91%), while most Republicans (86%) support Dahle; Newsom has an edge over Dahle among independent likely voters (47% Newsom, 37% Dahle). Beyond the country's regions, two in three in the San Francisco Bay Surface area and Los Angeles back up Newsom, as do nearly half in the Inland Empire and Orange/San Diego; likely voters in the Central Valley are split. Newsom leads in all demographic groups, with the exception of men (45% Newsom, 44% Dahle) and those with a loftier school diploma just (46% Newsom, 49% Dahle). The share supporting Newsom grows as educational attainment increases (46% loftier school simply, 56% some college, sixty% college graduates), while it decreases with rising income (64% less than $twoscore,000, 56% $forty,000 to $79,999, 52% $80,000 or more).

figure - A majority of likely voters would vote to reelect Gavin Newsom if the election were held today

A solid majority of likely voters (62%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the November viii election, while well-nigh three in x (32%) are non satisfied. Shares expressing satisfaction have increased somewhat from a month agone (53%) and were similar prior to the 2018 gubernatorial election (lx% October 2018). Today, a solid majority of Democrats (79%) and independents (61%) say they are satisfied, compared to fewer than half of Republicans (44%). Majorities across demographic groups say they are satisfied, and notably, women (68%) are more likely than men (56%) to say this. Majorities beyond the land's regions say they are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the upcoming gubernatorial election.

State Propositions 26, 27, and 30

In the upcoming November 8 election, there volition exist 7 land propositions for voters. Due to time constraints, our survey merely asked about three ballot measures: Propositions 26, 27, and thirty. For each, we read the proposition number, election, and ballot label. Ii of the land election measures were besides included in the September survey (Propositions 27 and 30), while Proposition 26 was not.

If the ballot were held today, 34 percent of likely voters would vote "yes," 57 pct would vote "no," and 9 percent are unsure of how they would vote on Proposition 26—Allows In-Person Roulette, Die, Game, Sports Wagering on Tribal Lands. This measure would allow in-person sports betting at racetracks and tribal casinos, requiring that racetracks and casinos offer sports betting make sure payments to the land to support state regulatory costs. Information technology as well allows roulette and dice games at tribal casinos and adds a new way to enforce sure country gambling laws. There is partisan agreement on Prop 26: fewer than four in ten Democrats, Republicans, and independents would vote "aye." Moreover, less than a majority across all regions and demographic groups—with the exception of probable voters ages 18 to 44 (51% yep, 44% no)—would vote "yes."

If the election were held today, 26 percent of likely voters would vote "yeah," 67 percent would vote "no," and 8 per centum are unsure of how they would vote on Proposition 27—Allows Online and Mobile Sports Wagering Exterior Tribal Lands. This citizens' initiative would let Indian tribes and affiliated businesses to operate online and mobile sports wagering outside tribal lands. Stiff majorities across partisan groups would vote "no" on Prop 27. The share voting "yeah" has decreased since a month ago (34% September). Today, fewer than three in 10 across partisan groups would vote "yes" on Prop 27. Moreover, fewer than iv in 10 beyond regions, gender, racial/ethnic, pedagogy, and income groups would vote "yes." Likely voters ages 18 to 44 (41%) are far more probable than older probable voters ages 45 and above (xix%) to say they would vote "yes."

If the ballot were held today, 41 percent of likely voters would vote "yes," 52 percent would vote "no," and 7 percent are unsure of how they would vote on Proposition 30—Provides Funding for Programs to Reduce Air Pollution and Foreclose Wildfires by Increasing Tax on Personal Income over $two One thousand thousand. This citizens' initiative would increase taxes on Californians earning more than $2 million annually and allocate that tax revenue to zero-emission vehicle buy incentives, vehicle charging stations, and wildfire prevention. The share saying "yes" on Prop 30 has decreased from 55 percent in our September survey (note: since September, Governor Newsom has been featured in "no on Prop xxx" commercials). Today, unlike Prop 26 and Prop 27, partisan opinions are divided on Prop 30: 61 percent of Democrats would vote "yes," compared to far fewer Republicans (15%) and independents (38%). Across regions, and amongst men and women, support falls short of a bulk (36% men, 45% women). Fewer than one-half across racial/indigenous groups say they would vote "aye" (39% whites, 42% Latinos, 46% other racial/ethnic groups). But over half of likely voters with incomes under $twoscore,000 (52%) would vote "yes," compared to fewer in higher-income groups (42% $forty,000 to $79,999, 36% $80,000 or more). Nearly half of probable voters ages eighteen to 44 (49%) would vote "yes," compared to 37 percent of older likely voters.

figure - Overall support for Prop 26, 27, and 30 falls short of a majority, with partisans divided

Fewer than half of likely voters say the outcome of each of these land propositions is very important to them. Today, 21 percent of likely voters say the outcome of Prop 26 is very important, 31 percent say the outcome of Prop 27 is very important, and 42 pct say the outcome of Prop xxx is very important. The shares maxim the outcomes are very important to them accept remained similar to a month ago for Prop 27 (29%) and Prop 30 (42%). Today, when information technology comes to the importance of the consequence of Prop 26, 1 in four or fewer across partisan groups say information technology is very of import to them. About ane in three across partisan groups say the event of Prop 27 is very important to them. Fewer than one-half across partisan groups say the outcome of Prop thirty is very important to them.

figure - The share of likely voters who say the outcome of the vote is very important differs by proposition

Congressional Elections

When asked how they would vote if the 2022 election for the US House of Representatives were held today, 56 percent of likely voters say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate, while 39 percentage would vote for or lean toward the Republican candidate. In September, a like share of likely voters preferred the Democratic candidate (sixty% Democrat/lean Democrat, 34% Republican/lean Republican). Today, overwhelming majorities of partisans back up their party's candidate, while independents are divided (50% Democrat/lean Democrat, 44% Republican/lean Republican). Democratic candidates are preferred by a 26-point margin in Autonomous-held districts, while Republican candidates are preferred past a 23-indicate margin in Republican-held districts. In the 10 competitive California districts as defined by the Cook Political Study, the Autonomous candidate is preferred by a 22-point margin (54% to 32%).

figure - A majority of likely voters would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district if the election for Congress were held today

Ballgame is another prominent event in this ballot. When asked about the importance of abortion rights, 61 pct of likely voters say the issue is very of import in determining their vote for Congress and some other twenty percent say it is somewhat important; but 17 percentage say it is not too or not at all important. Amidst partisans, an overwhelming bulk of Democrats (78%) and 55 percentage of independents say it is very important, compared to 43 percent of Republicans. Majorities across regions and all demographic groups—with the exception of men (49% very important)—say ballgame rights are very important when making their option amid candidates for Congress.

figure - A solid majority of likely voters say the issue of abortion rights is very important in their vote for Congress this year

With the decision-making party in Congress hanging in the balance, 51 percentage of likely voters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress this year; another 29 percent are somewhat enthusiastic while 19 per centum are either not too or not at all enthusiastic. In Oct 2018 earlier the terminal midterm ballot, a similar 53 percent of likely voters were extremely or very enthusiastic nearly voting for Congress (25% extremely, 28% very, 28% somewhat, 10% not as well, viii% non at all). Today, Democrats and Republicans take about equal levels of enthusiasm, while independents are much less likely to exist extremely or very enthusiastic. One-half or more beyond regions are at to the lowest degree very enthusiastic, with the exceptions of likely voters in Los Angeles (44%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (43%). At least half across demographic groups are highly enthusiastic, with the exceptions of likely voters earning $40,000 to $79,999 annually (48%), women (47%), Latinos (43%), those with a loftier schoolhouse diploma or less (42%), renters (42%), and 18- to 44-year-olds (37%).

Commonwealth and the Political Divide

As Californians gear up to vote in the upcoming midterm ballot, fewer than one-half of adults and likely voters are satisfied with the way democracy is working in the U.s.—and few are very satisfied. Satisfaction was higher in our February survey when 53 percent of adults and 48 per centum of likely voters were satisfied with democracy in America. Today, one-half of Democrats and nigh iv in ten independents are satisfied, compared to nearly one in five Republicans. Notably, four in x Republicans are non at all satisfied. Beyond regions, half of residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (52%) and the Inland Empire (50%) are satisfied, compared to fewer elsewhere. Across demographic groups, fewer than half are satisfied, with the exception of Latinos (56%), those with a high school caste or less (55%), and those making less than $40,000 (53%).

figure - Fewer than half of Californians are satisfied with the way democracy is working in the United States

In addition to the lack of satisfaction with the way democracy is working, Californians are divided about whether Americans of different political positions can yet come together and work out their differences. Forty-9 percent are optimistic, while 46 percent are pessimistic. Optimism has been similar in more contempo years, but has decreased 7 points since we start asked this question in September 2017 (56%). In September 2020, simply earlier the 2020 full general election, Californians were as well divided (47% optimistic, 49% pessimistic).

Today, in a rare moment of bipartisan understanding, about 4 in ten Democrats, Republicans, and independents are optimistic that Americans of different political views will be able to come together. Beyond regions, about half in Orange/San Diego, the Inland Empire, and the San Francisco Bay Surface area are optimistic. Across demographic groups, simply the following groups have a bulk or more who are optimistic: African Americans and Latinos (61% each), those with a high schoolhouse diploma or less (63%), and those with household incomes under $xl,000 (61%). Notably, in 2017, half or more across parties, regions, and demographic groups were optimistic.

figure - Californians are pessimistic that Americans with different political views can still come together and work out differences

Blessing Ratings

With about two weeks to get before Governor Newsom's bid for reelection, a majority of Californians (54%) and likely voters (52%) corroborate of the manner he is handling his job, while fewer disapprove (33% adults, 45% likely voters). Approval was virtually identical in September (52% adults, 55% likely voters) and has been 50 pct or more than since Jan 2020. Today, most 8 in ten Democrats—compared to about half of independents and nigh ane in 10 Republicans—corroborate of Governor Newsom. One-half or more across regions corroborate of Newsom, except in the Central Valley (42%). Across demographic groups, about half or more corroborate of how Governor Newsom is handling his job.

With all 80 state assembly positions and half of land senate seats up for election, fewer than half of adults (49%) and likely voters (43%) approve of the way that the California Legislature is treatment its job. Views are deeply divided along partisan lines; approval is highest in the San Francisco Bay Surface area and lowest in Orangish/San Diego. About one-half across racial/ethnic groups approve, and blessing is much college among younger Californians.

figure - About half approve of the governor and state legislature

Majorities of California adults (53%) and likely voters (52%) corroborate of the way President Biden is treatment his job, while fewer disapprove (43% adults, 47% likely voters). Approval is similar to September (53% adults and likely voters), and Biden's approval rating among adults has been at 50 percent or higher since we get-go asked this question in Jan 2021. Today, about eight in ten Democrats approve of Biden'southward job performance, compared to near four in x independents and one in ten Republicans. Approval is higher in the San Francisco Bay Expanse and Los Angeles than in the Inland Empire, Orange/San Diego, and the Fundamental Valley. About half or more beyond demographic groups corroborate of President Biden, with the exception of those with some college education (44%).

Approving of Congress remains depression, with fewer than 4 in ten adults (37%) and likely voters (29%) approving. Approval of Congress among adults has been below 40 percent for all of 2022 after seeing a cursory run in a higher place xl percent for all of 2021. Democrats are far more probable than Republicans to corroborate of Congress. Fewer than half beyond regions and demographic groups approve of Congress.

figure - About half continue to approve of President Biden; approval of Congress remains low

The states Senator Alex Padilla is on the California election twice this November—once for the remainder of Vice President Harris's term and once for reelection. Senator Padilla has the approving of 46 percent of adults and 48 per centum of likely voters (adults: 26% disapprove, 29% don't know; likely voters: 31% disapprove, 22% don't know). Approval in March was at 44 percent for adults and 39 percent for likely voters. Today, Padilla's approval rating is much college among Democrats than independents and Republicans. Across regions, near half in the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, and the Inland Empire approve of the United states of america senator, compared to four in x in Orangish/San Diego and one in 3 in the Central Valley. Across demographic groups, about half or more than approve amongst women, younger adults, African Americans, Asian Americans, and Latinos. Views are similar across educational activity and income groups, with just fewer than one-half approving.

U.s.a. Senator Dianne Feinstein—who is not on the California ballot this Nov—has the approval of 41 percent of adults and likely voters (adults: 42% disapprove, 17% don't know; likely voters: 52% disapprove, 7% don't know). Approval in March was at 41 percent for adults and 36 pct for likely voters. Today, Feinstein's approving rating is far higher among Democrats and independents than Republicans. Across regions, approval reaches a majority simply in the San Francisco Bay Expanse. Beyond demographic groups, approval reaches a majority but among African Americans

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